How might COVID-19 affect future employment, earnings, and OASI claiming?

Abstract

The medium- and long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are of continued interest to policymakers, advocates, and academics. Given the importance of health in decisions to work, earn, and eventually claim OASI benefits, COVID may have long-term effects on programs SSA administers even well after the official end of the pandemic. To this end, this report examines how COVID has affected the health of Americans, as well as their employment, earnings, and OASI claiming since the onset of the pandemic. The focus is on two main channels. First, the pandemic led to disruptions in the supply of healthcare that may have delayed or prevented required care. Second, infection may have led to an array of post-acute and chronic conditions, so-called long COVID. To examine these channels, the analysis focuses on mid- to late-career individuals, defined as those who were between the ages of 50 and 75 when the pandemic began in 2020. It uses rich longitudinal data on health and employment before, during, and after the pandemic from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative survey of individuals 50 and older, interviewed every two years until death. The HRS is the preeminent data source for addressing how health and employment evolve over time.