Together We Bargain, Divided We Beg The Question

Abstract

Labor unions are generally considered to be beneficial for workers wages and benefits, but have been on the decline for decades. This analysis questions why workers appear more hesitant to vote for labor unions now than in the past by investigating what factors influence individual labor union votes. Specifically, this analysis aims to pinpoint the effect that outside minimum wages have on union election outcomes. Using data from the United States National Labor Relations Board, Michigan State, IPUMS USA and the US Census Bureau, I generated two models – a logistic regression, and an ordinary least squares regression – that each predict the likelihood of union support based upon outside minimum wages, after controlling for a variety of factors including but not limited to the county unemployment rate, the existence of the Right to Work law, and county-level demographics. I find that the difference between state-level or city-level minimum wages and the federal minimum wage has a positive relationship with the likelihood of union certification. Specifically, I find that union support is most likely in areas where the local-level minimum wage is $4.18 higher than the federal minimum wage in the logistic model, and $5.13 higher than the federal minimum in the ordinary least squares model, ceteris paribus. Put differently, with a federal minimum wage of $7.25, areas with minimum wages around $12 are most likely to see union elections pass. Overall, these results suggest that workers are more likely to vote for a union when local exogenous economic environments are strong.