Human Trafficking and Natural Disasters: An Empirical Analysis

Abstract

It is widely believed that natural disasters increase human trafficking from the affected region or country; however, credible analyses of the causal relationship are lacking. This paper estimates the causal effect of natural disaster occurrence on economic factors and the probability of human trafficking. I find that there is a significant, positive effect of disasters—as measured by an indicator for occurrence as well as disaster intensity—on human trafficking. Moreover, disasters negatively impact economic outcomes, suggesting a potential mechanism through which disasters indirectly affect trafficking. These findings are policy-relevant for anti-human trafficking and disaster relief organizations as they provide empirical evidence for a previously hypothesized relationship and may help prioritize the underemphasized rise in trafficking during times of inevitable chaos.