The Evolution of US Monetary Policy

Abstract

This paper estimates a VAR with time-varying parameters to characterize the changes in Federal Reserve policy that occurred from 2000 through 2007 and assess how those changes affected the performance of the U.S. economy. The results point to a gradual shift in the Fed's emphasis over this period, away from stabilizing inflation and towards stabilizing output. A persistent deviation of the federal funds rate from the settings prescribed by the estimated monetary policy rule appears more important, however, in causing inflation to overshoot its target in the years leading up to the Great Recession.